The odds on a Liberal win have shortened at Sportingbet to $2.65. Labor is still a solid favorite at $1.55, but John Howard is striding back into town.
His first few days of the campaign have been very good - kicked off by a huge tax cut promise that didnât just highlight Howardâs good economic record, but showed how unready Labor was for any debate over tax. Howard has also sounded assured, while Rudd is becoming dangerously close to being seen as all spin and no substance.
Ruddâs ads have been good, but the Liberalsâ scare on unions will bite because it really will startle people that Ruddâs front bench is indeed 70 per cent old union officials. Howard probably is also connecting with his âgrow upââ attack on Ruddâs complaints of ânegativeâ campaigns.
Rudd may yet have in his bag the policies that will show him as indeed the man for a fresh start. At least he knows heâll have billions of Budget surplus to play with, while Howard still faces a huge âitâs long enoughââ factor.
But right now Iâd say the polls will start to follow the bookies - and make the media story Ruddâs decline and not Howardâs end.
That will put Rudd under more pressure than heâs known in his life. Letâs see what heâs made of. This contest may yet prove a lot, lot tighter than I predicted.
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