The next supermodel

The notion of the next top model has long made for good television viewing, all the while having close to no impact on who really becomes a top model. The Natasha Polys and the Arizona Muses of the world didn’t grow strong careers through stints on reality TV.

What then will influence who really becomes one of the models who’ll capture our attention and spur our imagination throughout 2012?

One chap has put together the clues.

In fact, Craig Arend has gone so far as to create a whole spreadsheet around the concept, one that tracks new models by who they walked for, if they opened or closed those shows, and who cast them.

Since history often has a tendency to repeat itself, I thought the information from the SS11 shows might help predict the coming SS12 shows.

What are the most directional shows for a model to walk at New York Fashion Week (and fashion month in general) and what makes those shows valuable for a model? Let’s start with Calvin Klein.

Somebody behind the scenes at Calvin Klein chose Daphne Groeneveld to walk the runway 3 times. Look how well she fared afterward in the editorial/campaign season. Basically, if you see a girl walk Calvin Klein 3 times this SS12 season, the odds are good she will be a big name to follow.

That, however, is rather general. If you want more of an insight Craig also offers up this:

At this same time last season, Arizona Muse who was virtually unknown was already on Casting Director Russell Marsh’s radar. She opened and closed BCBG Max Azria. Russell Marsh later cast Arizona for the SS11 Prada show and with Miucci Prada’s final go ahead, Arizona Opened and Closed Prada.
A similar pattern of virtually prophetic insight by Casting Director Russell Marsh can also be understood by looking back at the SS10 and SS09 BCBG Max Azria shows. In SS10, Russell cast a virtually unknown Frida Gustavsson and Jacquelyn Jablonski. And for SS09, Russell cast a rookie face unknown to the public at the time named Constance Jablonski.
So there’s you have it: when New York fashion week kicks off in a few weeks keep your eyes on the fresh faces of the BCBG Max Azria catwalk. They have the potential to be the real next top model.
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